When it happens: The European Central Bank (ECB) publishes its policy decision on Thursday, 11 September 2025 at 14:15 CET, followed by the press conference at 14:45 CET and staff projections at 15:45 CET. Mark these times if you manage EUR invoices or quotes.
Context: where policy stands going into September
Earlier in 2025 the ECB reduced rates in incremental steps—including March and June—bringing the deposit facility to 2.0%. Into the September meeting, most economists expected a hold at 2% with attention on guidance and new projections.
Three quick scenarios and what they mean for importers
1) Hold (consensus)
Likely market bias: muted EUR reaction at first; focus shifts to the press‑conference tone and staff projections. For importers: little immediate change to EUR invoice costs; keep budget‑rate assumptions unchanged and use market orders around levels you can live with.
2) Cut (surprise)
Likely market bias: softer EUR if framed as confidence in disinflation. For importers: EUR‑denominated invoices may price a touch cheaper in GBP terms; consider partial cover (e.g., 50–70% via forwards) to secure near‑term costs while leaving some upside if EUR softens further.
3) Hike (low probability)
Likely market bias: firmer EUR; volatility around guidance. For importers: stress‑test worst‑case GBP/EUR for open POs and consider stop‑loss levels on unhedged exposures to protect margin.
What UK importers can do today (practical checklist)
- List your EUR exposures due in the next 1–3 months (POs, freight, deposits). Group by due date and criticality.
- Set a simple trigger plan: place market orders (limit/stop) around workable levels; avoid chasing intraday spikes right after 14:15 CET.
- Use partial cover: secure a portion now with forwards to stabilise the next pay run, leave some unhedged for potential favourable moves.
- Consider natural hedging where possible (matching EUR revenues with EUR costs) to reduce reliance on derivatives.
- Refresh budget rates once the press conference ends and the market settles.
-
Key timings & how to follow
14:15 CET – Decision; 14:45 CET – Press conference; 15:45 CET – Staff projections. These are the official ECB times for this meeting block.
How we help: calm, operational execution
- Market orders to pre‑define execution levels during event volatility.
- Forwards to secure known costs for upcoming payables.
- Natural‑hedge planning to align inflows/outflows in EUR.
